Atlanta Falcons’ Late-Season Fight: Why They’re Not Done Yet
The Atlanta Falcons now have a rare chance to end the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ four-year dominance in the NFC South, as if they weren’t already a pain in the ass.
You may have assumed that the Falcons (6–9) were already eliminated from contention for the postseason. That is accurate.
The Falcons’ incredible 29–28 upset in Tampa earlier this month may have given you the impression that they had already tied their season series with Tampa Bay. That is also accurate.
Given that Tampa Bay has the common-games tiebreaker over Carolina, you may expect that the winner of the Week 18 game between the Buccaneers (7–9) and the Carolina Panthers (8–8) will win the division and go to the playoffs as the only representative from the NFC South. That’s all true.
Even if the chances are minimal, Atlanta is still in the running because the Falcons will visit the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football in Week 17.
First and foremost, the Falcons deserve praise for persevering through a disastrous season. They could have easily lost their enthusiasm if they had lost nine of their first thirteen games. The Dirty Birds were severely weakened by inconsistent play and injuries to important players, such as wide receiver Drake London and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Since 2017, Atlanta has not made it to the postseason.
Nevertheless, they have won their last two games, beginning with their surprising triumph on December 11 at Raymond James Stadium. Additionally, it creates the possibility that the Falcons, Panthers, and Buccaneers all end with identical 8–9 records.
When clubs from separate divisions are vying for a wild-card place, the league’s somewhat complicated tiebreaking processes operate differently than they do inside a division. In this instance, head-to-head results—the best win-loss-tie % in games between the participating teams—would be the decisive tiebreaker.
The Panthers’ overall record versus Atlanta and Tampa Bay would be 3-1 if they lost to the Buccaneers in Week 18. In those games, the Falcons would be 1-3 and the Buccaneers would be 2-2. Carolina’s 8–9 record would be sufficient to win the NFC South in that scenario.
Once more, teams in the same division are subject to different rules than teams in separate divisions with identical records. However, if Carolina and Tampa Bay make it to 8–9 and the Falcons don’t, the tiebreakers would look like this:
• The Panthers and Buccaneers would be tied in a head-to-head match.
• The division record would be 3-3 for both clubs.
• Typical games: Tampa Bay would be 6-6 and Carolina would be 5-7.
This implies that the Buccaneers would win the division if Tampa Bay and Carolina were tied.
What does that mean for the present situation? Not much has altered.
The Rams had no chance of winning the NFC West or the top seed in the conference after the San Francisco 49ers’ victory on Sunday night. The main uncertainty is whether the Rams will be the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, but they are assured a wild-card position.
What impact does that have on their strategy for playing Atlanta? It’s not clear. It’s important to remember, too, that the fifth seed would start the wild-card round in either Charlotte or Tampa. Although the Panthers did defeat the Rams in Week 13, that would appear advantageous.
Another small detail is that the Falcons’ 2026 first-round pick is owned by the Rams. Theoretically, LA’s draft standing would increase if they defeated Atlanta next spring.
Having said that, it’s safe to assume that Buccaneers supporters will be cheering for the Rams on Monday night and, if necessary, the New Orleans Saints in Week 18.